Mauritania: President Ghazouani Set to Win Re-Election

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Above: President of Mauritania and chairperson of the African Union Mohamed Ould Ghazouani arrives at Borgo Egnazia on day two of the 50th G7 summit, on June 14, 2024 in Fasano, Italy. Image copyright: Antonio Masiello/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to provisional results from the Mauritanian Electoral Commission, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani has won re-election outright in the presidential vote held on Saturday.

  • With more than 99% of the votes counted, Ghazouani secured over 56%. In second position was anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, with about 22%.

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The Spin

Narrative A

This balloting was anticipated to test Mauritania's nascent democracy because it could have triggered its first-ever civilian-to-civilian transition, but the perks of incumbency and Ghazouani's military past seem to have prevailed. If he is confirmed the winner, the actual state of democracy in Mauritania will only be known in five years.

Guardian

Narrative B

Ghazouani has always been the frontrunner in the presidential race, especially after his party won a majority in parliament last year. And while he is a former army chief, this is hardly why the people gave him an outright victory. After all, he brought stability to the country amid a regional crisis and ramped up ties with the EU to produce gas.

Bloomberg

Metaculus Prediction