Iran, Bahrain Agree to Resume Diplomatic Ties

Above: The Foreign Minister of Bahrain, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani on August 11, 2021 in Berlin, Germany. Image copyright: Michael Sohn - Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Following a meeting on Sunday between acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, both countries agreed to "establish the necessary mechanisms" to start talks aimed at restoring political relations.

  • A joint statement referred to the "fraternal historical relations" between the two countries, underlining the bonds of religion, neighborhood, and shared history, as well as the "common interests" that it said connect Tehran and Manama.


The Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

The agreement marks a significant step in mending strained bilateral ties by expressing both countries' commitment to dialog and reconciliation. Tehran believes that normalizing diplomatic relations and enhancing mutual understanding is the only way to resolve various issues that have caused friction in the past. Postponing the restoration of diplomatic ties would be counterproductive, and Bahrain should accept Iran's move to promote regional stability and its national security interests.

Anti-Iran narrative

The signs may point towards a detente, but Bahrain should remain skeptical. Not only does Iran constantly interfere in Bahrain's domestic affairs, but Tehran is also sheltering several wanted Bahraini opposition figures. In addition, Iran links the resumption of bilateral ties to the opposition's return to Bahrain and the release of suspicious Shiite prisoners. The Gulf kingdom should think twice about whether the restoration of relations with the Iranian regime is worth the price.

Establishment-critical narrative

The fact that Russia brokered the Iran-Bahrain warming is the latest proof of Russia's increasing diplomatic weight in the region. While the West used to dominate the Middle East, sowing chaos and discord, Moscow is committed to peace and stability — as evidenced by its efforts to end the Gaza war. The looming reconciliation between Bahrain and Iran will further enhance Moscow's regional prestige at the West's expense.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO