Iran Activates New Centrifuges After Criticism by UN Nuclear Watchdog

Above: Iranian expats and members of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) take part in an anti-Iran protest outside the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, Austria on Nov. 20, 2024.  Image copyright: Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Iran Friday activated "a significant series of new and advanced centrifuges" in response to the UN nuclear watchdog adopting a resolution condemning Tehran a day earlier, after France, Germany, the UK, and the US proposed it.

  • The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) said operating "a substantial number of advanced centrifuges of various models" would develop its "peaceful nuclear program." Uranium enrichment involves adding gas to the centrifuges.


The Spin

Narrative A

Iran has long sought to ease tensions with the West, offering unprecedented restrictions on its nuclear program to restore stability in a fractured region. Its halting of uranium enrichment, despite provocations, was a rare diplomatic olive branch. However, the West has chosen to escalate things and squander this opportunity, stoking mistrust, and pushing the Middle East toward instability. Iran's restraint, even under relentless Israeli aggression and sanctions, underscores a calculated effort to avoid war. This missed chance could now draw a high cost.

Narrative B

Iran's actions echo the manipulative path of North Korea, exploiting diplomacy and international oversight as smokescreens for its nuclear ambitions. It pledges compliance while flouting agreements, stalling global responses with empty gestures. Tehran's defiant rhetoric and centrifuge activations reveal its duplicity, rendering every assurance hollow. History warns us: despots determined to acquire nuclear arms cannot be trusted. Iran is a master of deceit, prioritizing regime survival over integrity, and exploiting complacency to edge closer to a nuclear arsenal.

Narrative C

Iran's actions, including advancing its nuclear program and activating centrifuges, are narrowing Israel’s strategic options. It faces mounting pressure to act directly against Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. However, any military strike risks sparking broader conflict and exhausting Israel’s resources amid its ongoing battles against Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel's dilemma is as follows: delay and risk a nuclear-armed adversary or act decisively at immense cost. This underscores how Iran’s defiance increasingly limits Israel’s room to maneuver, pushing the region closer to an inflection point.


Metaculus Prediction


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