Bulgaria: GERB-UDF Wins Most Seats in Snap Vote, Fails to Secure Majority

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Above: Leader of the center-right GERB party, Boyko Borissov, leaves a polling station after after voting in Bulgaria's parliamentary elections in Sofia on October 27, 2024. Image copyright: Nikolay Doychinov/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The center-right GERB-UDF coalition, under the leadership of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, has emerged as the largest group in Bulgaria's 240-seat parliament following an early vote on Sunday.

  • With all ballots counted, GERB-UDF had received 26.38% of the votes. Eight parties and groups entered parliament, with the WCC-DB coalition coming second (with 14.2% of the vote) and pro-Russia nationalist Revival party third (with 13.38%).

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The Spin

Narrative A

Borissov and his coalition have multiple options to form a government in Bulgaria, including seeking coalition with either the WCC-DB or the fourth-placed DPS-New Beginning to form a minority government. This course of action however, wouldn't solve the issue that any potential government would continue to be as unstable as those which have precedent it.

Euractiv

Narrative B

There's only one way out of this political crisis — GERB working together with the reformist WCC-DB in a pro-EU coalition while sidelining Delyan Peevski, the figure responsible for the deadlock. Despite Peevski's influence, efforts must be made to unravel him and his disruptive influence from the centre of Bulgarian politics.

RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Metaculus Prediction