Metaculus

UK Applies to Rejoin EU

Donald Trump

Viktor Mihály Orbán

Nigel Farage

Party for Freedom (PVV)

Alice Weidel

Jordan Bardella

Maciej Duszczyk

Marshall Auerback

Paul Taylor

Cesáreo Rodríguez-Aguilera de Prat

Markus Gastinger

Sara B. Hobolt

Hans Vollaard

Jimmie Åkesson

Bruno La Maire

Jon Henley

Andrew Glencross

Marine Le Pen

"[T]he EU will have more, not fewer, members by the mid-2030s — possibly as many as 36 compared to today's 27."

"In the (very) long term we will likely see the EU grow from its current 27 states to as many as 35."

"There is no majority in any other member state in government, parliament or public opinion for a full exit from the EU."

There's "no room for complacency over the future prospects of disintegration."

"[W]e could have a referendum on 'Dexit' — a German exit from the EU" if a reform of the bloc isn't possible.

"If we do not manage migration... In some time, the EU may fall apart."

“I believe others will leave. I do think keeping it together is not gonna be as easy as a lot of people think.”

Brexit "will trigger a domino effect."

Brexit "will set off the domino effect that will bring down all of Europe."

Will Any Other Country Follow the UK in Leaving the EU?

Keir Starmer

YouGov

The Labour Party

Richard Murphy

The UK Government

Yvette Cooper

Priti Patel

Nick Thomas-Symonds

Kristian Niemietz

Mark English

Ben Habib

"We do not have plans for a youth mobility scheme but do have plans for closer relationship between us and the EU."

"We have no plans for a youth mobility scheme."

"We do not have plans for a youth mobility agreement."

"So we're clear that net migration needs to come down, so that's why this [a youth mobility scheme] is not an approach that we are looking for."

Keir Starmer has made it very clear "that this is not on the agenda as far as the UK is concerned."

"It is probably not going to happen."

"Youth mobility will happen."

Will the UK Join or Create a Youth Mobility Scheme?

Rachel Reeves

Maros Sefcovic

David Henig

Matthew Pennycook

Douglas Alexander

The Prime Minister's Office (UK)

"We don't currently have any plans to join PEM."

Keir Starmer's government is "not seeking to participate in it at the present time."

"PEM rules are in the process of being updated, and the UK probably couldn't accede until that process is complete."

The government is "absolutely happy" to look at the proposals.

"[I]t is an issue that we are open to looking at."

Allowing the UK to join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean convention was "something we could consider."

Will the UK Join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?

Liz Truss

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jake Sullivan

Dmitry Peskov

John Kirby

Daniel DePetris

Mykhailo Podolyak

Petro Poroshenko

Andrey Illarionov

Dmytro Kuleba

David Von Drehle

Oleksiy Reznikov

Sergei Shoigu

Dmitry Gorenburg

Ivan Losev

Aleksey Arestovich

Andrzej Duda

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Jason Jay Smart

Beth Knobe

Dmitri Alperovitch

Richard Branson

When Will the Russia-Ukraine War End?

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The U.K. and Germany signed a bilateral friendship treaty on Thursday, the first of its kind between the two since World War 2. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer signed the document at London's Victoria and Albert Museum, establishing new agreements across defense, security, migration, and economic sectors.

GOV.UK

The Telegraph

EuroNews

The U.K. and Germany signed a bilateral friendship treaty on Thursday, the first of its kind between the two since World War 2. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer signed the document at London's Victoria and Albert Museum, establishing new agreements across defense, security, migration, and economic sectors.

Germany committed to criminalizing the facilitation of illegal migration to the U.K. by the end of 2025, addressing a legal loophole where such activities were not technically illegal when directed toward non-EU countries.

BBC News

Germany committed to criminalizing the facilitation of illegal migration to the U.K. by the end of 2025, addressing a legal loophole where such activities were not technically illegal when directed toward non-EU countries.

The treaty includes joint export campaigns for co-produced military equipment, such as Typhoon jets and Boxer armored vehicles. Both nations also committed to developing Deep Precision Strike capability with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers within the next decade

Dw.Com

The treaty includes joint export campaigns for co-produced military equipment, such as Typhoon jets and Boxer armored vehicles. Both nations also committed to developing Deep Precision Strike capability with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers within the next decade

Economic provisions include the creation of a U.K.-Germany Business Forum and plans for a direct rail connection between London and Berlin within the next decade. German companies announced investments worth over £200 million in the U.K., expected to create more than 600 new jobs across various sectors.

DER SPIEGEL

Economic provisions include the creation of a U.K.-Germany Business Forum and plans for a direct rail connection between London and Berlin within the next decade. German companies announced investments worth over £200 million in the U.K., expected to create more than 600 new jobs across various sectors.

The agreement facilitates increased people-to-people exchanges through simplified visa processes for school exchanges and the opening of German e-gates for frequent U.K. travelers by summer's end. The treaty emphasizes strengthening cultural ties and youth mobility programs to deepen bilateral relationships post-Brexit.

Bundeskanzler

The agreement facilitates increased people-to-people exchanges through simplified visa processes for school exchanges and the opening of German e-gates for frequent U.K. travelers by summer's end. The treaty emphasizes strengthening cultural ties and youth mobility programs to deepen bilateral relationships post-Brexit.

Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia and limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The treaty positions the partnership as a response to evolving geopolitical threats and the need for enhanced European security cooperation.

Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia and  limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The treaty positions the partnership as a response to evolving geopolitical threats and the need for enhanced European security cooperation.

Metaculus #0

GOV.UK #

The Telegraph #

EuroNews #

BBC News #

The treaty includes joint export campaigns for co-produced military equipment, such as Typhoon jets and armored Boxer vehicles. Both nations also committed to developing Deep Precision Strike capability with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers within the next decade.

Dw.Com #

The treaty includes joint export campaigns for co-produced military equipment, such as Typhoon jets and armored Boxer vehicles. Both nations also committed to developing Deep Precision Strike capability with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers within the next decade.

DER SPIEGEL #

This treaty represents a pragmatic reset of UK-European relations after Brexit, demonstrating that Britain can maintain strong partnerships outside the EU framework. The German commitment to criminalize migration facilitation shows European allies are willing to take concrete steps to address shared challenges. Enhanced defense cooperation and economic investments prove that post-Brexit Britain remains an attractive partner for major European powers.

This treaty represents a pragmatic reset of UK-European relations after Brexit, demonstrating that Britain can maintain strong partnerships outside the EU framework. The German commitment to criminalize migration facilitation shows European allies are willing to take concrete steps to address shared challenges. Enhanced defense cooperation and economic investments prove that post-Brexit Britain remains an attractive partner for major European powers.

PM meeting with Chancellor Merz of Germany: 17 July 2025

UK-Germany landmark agreement to help smash smuggling gangs and boost defence exports

The agreement highlights the UK's continued dependence on European cooperation to address fundamental challenges like migration and security. Germany's legal changes essentially require them to clean up problems created by British immigration policies and Brexit consequences. The treaty's emphasis on restoring pre-Brexit connectivity through rail links and visa arrangements acknowledges the damage done by leaving the EU.

The agreement highlights the UK's continued dependence on European cooperation to address fundamental challenges like migration and security. Germany's legal changes essentially require them to clean up problems created by British immigration policies and Brexit consequences. The treaty's emphasis on restoring pre-Brexit connectivity through rail links and visa arrangements acknowledges the damage done by leaving the EU.

Germany and UK sign historic post-Brexit friendship treaty  DW  07/17/2025

Germany to tighten people-smuggling law by end of year

Brexit: A History of UK-EU Relations

UK-Germany Sign Post-Brexit Friendship Treaty

UK-Germany Sign Post-Brexit Friendship Treaty

Europe

Germany

Headlines

Politics

United Kingdom

World

Merz and Starmer are forging a bold new chapter in U.K.-German relations. The Kensington Treaty marks a historic step toward deeper cooperation on defence, migration, and education. Their leadership signals a shared commitment to security, prosperity, and youth exchange, laying the groundwork for a stronger, more united Europe in a post-Brexit era.

Merz and Starmer are forging a bold new chapter in U.K.-German relations. The Kensington Treaty marks a historic step toward deeper cooperation on defence, migration, and education. Their leadership signals a shared commitment to security, prosperity, and youth exchange, laying the groundwork for a stronger, more united Europe in a post-Brexit era.

Chancellor's statement on the German-British friendship treaty

GermanAmbUK

Merz and Starmer posture as tough leaders, but their actions suggest shallow, symbolic gestures. Merz pushes for long-range weapons to Ukraine without explaining how "deep strike systems" are defensive. Starmer, meanwhile, masks weak migration deals as victories. Both risk escalating conflict while offering little real-world accountability or strategy to help working people.

Merz and Starmer posture as tough leaders, but their actions suggest shallow, symbolic gestures. Merz pushes for long-range weapons to Ukraine without explaining how "deep strike systems" are defensive. Starmer, meanwhile, masks weak migration deals as victories. Both risk escalating conflict while offering little real-world accountability or strategy to help working people.

UK-Germany Sign Post-Brexit Friendship Treaty

UK-Germany Sign Post-Brexit Friendship Treaty

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Henig

Reeves

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Sefcovic

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UK-Germany Sign Post-Brexit Friendship Treaty

UK-Germany Sign Post-Brexit Friendship Treaty

The Spin

The Controversies

Taylor

Prat

Vollaard

Glencross

Weidel

Duszczyk

Trump

Farage

Pen

Starmer

Thomas-Symonds

Party

Cooper

Murphy

Niemietz

English

Thomas-Symonds

Pennycook

Henig

Reeves

Alexander

Sefcovic

Go Deeper

Articles on this story

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