Guardian

UK inflation rises unexpectedly to 3.6% driven by food and fuel prices

Metaculus

Keir Starmer

Office for Budget Responsibility

Ben Riley-Smith

Goldman Sachs

KPMG

Naomi Smith

Robert Colvile

UK Trade & Business Commission

Sharon Graham

"Today's #GDP growth figures are still a long way from @Keir_Starmer's target of 2.5% and it is far from clear that we are heading in the right direction."

"The OBR will drop the forecast for 2025/26 growth from 2% to around 1%."

"Labour are promising to be the fastest-growing country in the G7. And our growth forecast is 2% or less every single year of this parliament? Yeah, good luck with that."

"The economy is expected to grow by just over 1 per cent this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2025."

Research shows that "deep alignment with the EU on goods and services will deliver 2.2% economic growth to the UK."

"Closer ties with the EU could deliver growth of up to 2.2%. Clawing back up to half the damage caused by Brexit."

"Certainly, yes [when pressed on whether he was seeking to achieve growth of 2.5 per cent]."

Will the UK Economy Grow By 2% GDP In a Year Under Labour?

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U.K. inflation rose to 3.6% in the year to June 2025, up from 3.4% in May, marking the highest rate since January 2024 and exceeding economists' predictions that it would remain unchanged. According to the ONS, the increase was driven primarily by motor fuel prices, which fell only slightly compared to larger decreases in the same period last year.

Daily Mail

BBC News

U.K. inflation rose to 3.6% in the year to June 2025, up from 3.4% in May, marking the highest rate since January 2024 and exceeding economists' predictions that it would remain unchanged. According to the ONS, the  increase was driven primarily by motor fuel prices, which fell only slightly compared to larger decreases in the same period last year.

Food price inflation increased for the third consecutive month to 4.5% annually, reaching its highest rate since February 2024, with rises in cakes, meat, milk, eggs and cheddar cheese contributing to the rise. Transport costs also contributed to the increase, with air fares rising 7.9% between May and June 2025.

Office for National Statistics

Food price inflation increased for the third consecutive month to 4.5% annually, reaching its highest rate since February 2024, with rises in cakes, meat, milk, eggs and cheddar cheese contributing to the rise. Transport costs also contributed to the increase, with air fares rising 7.9% between May and June 2025.

Motor fuel prices fell by 9.0% in the year to June 2025, compared with a larger decline of 10.9% in May, as petrol prices dropped only 0.5 pence per liter between May and June versus a 3.0 pence decline in the same period last year. Diesel prices similarly fell less sharply, declining 0.6 pence per liter compared to a 4.8 pence drop in June 2024.</span

Motor fuel prices fell by 9.0% in the year to June 2025, compared with a larger decline of 10.9% in May, as petrol prices dropped only 0.5 pence per liter between May and June versus a 3.0 pence decline in the same period last year. Diesel prices similarly fell less sharply, declining 0.6 pence per liter compared to a 4.8 pence drop in June 2024.

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased from 3.5% to 3.7% in June, while services inflation remained at 4.7%.The inflation rate remains above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Bank of England

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased from 3.5% to 3.7% in June, while services inflation remained at 4.7%.The inflation rate remains above the Bank of England's 2% target.

In response to the news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated that working people were "still struggling with the cost of living." Meanwhile, Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride criticized Labour's tax decisions, alleging they were "killing growth and stoking inflation" and making everyday essentials more expensive for families.

In response to the news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated that working people were "still struggling with the cost of living." Meanwhile, Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride criticized Labour's tax decisions, alleging they were "killing growth and stoking inflation" and making everyday essentials more expensive for families.

Currently, the Bank of England's interest rate sits at 4.25%, with the Monetary Policy Committee maintaining this level during their June meeting with a 6-3 majority. The Bank currently predicts that inflation will increase to 3.7% in September, before returning to the 2% target in the medium term.

Currently, the Bank of England's interest rate sits at 4.25%, with the Monetary Policy Committee maintaining this level during their June meeting with a 6-3 majority. The Bank currently predicts that inflation will increase to 3.7% in September, before returning to the 2% target in the medium term.

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Metaculus #0

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BBC News #

Office for National Statistics #

Bank of England #

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This inflation spike proves Labour's economic policies are backfiring spectacularly. The £25 billion employer tax hike is forcing businesses to slash jobs and jack up prices, while reckless borrowing fuels price pressures. Families are getting hammered by soaring costs.

This inflation spike proves Labour's economic policies are backfiring spectacularly. The £25 billion employer tax hike is forcing businesses to slash jobs and jack up prices, while reckless borrowing fuels price pressures. Families are getting hammered by soaring costs.

Another huge blow for Rachel Reeves as inflation RISES to 3.6% defying predictions from analysts leaving hopes of interest rate cuts in the balance

Rising inflation reflects global pressures beyond government control, with fuel and food price increases driven by international markets rather than domestic policy. The government has already acted to support workers through minimum wage increases and fare caps.

Rising inflation reflects global pressures beyond government control, with fuel and food price increases driven by international markets rather than domestic policy. The government has already acted to support workers through minimum wage increases and fare caps.

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June

United Kingdom

Politics

Money

Governance

Cautious rate cuts and pragmatic government decision-making reflects sound policy in uncertain times. A recent rise in inflation is the result of short-term factors that are expected to peak in September, before a return to the Bank's target rate in the medium-term. The Treasury and the Bank will continue to work together to ensure that the British economy remains stable and secure.

Cautious rate cuts and pragmatic government decision-making reflects sound policy in uncertain times. A recent rise in inflation is the result of short-term factors that are expected to peak in September, before a return to the Bank's target rate in the medium-term. The Treasury and the Bank will continue to work together to ensure that the British economy remains stable and secure.

Publishing

As the Bank of England rushes through interest rate cuts despite inflationary pressure, Reeves's Treasury continues to push prices up with increased borrowing and public spending. As these two institutions fail in their economic policy, it is working people that are left worse off. The Bank and the Chancellor must get a grip immediately or risk a fiscal crisis.

As the Bank of England rushes through interest rate cuts despite inflationary pressure, Reeves's Treasury continues to push prices up with increased borrowing and public spending. As these two institutions fail in their economic policy, it is working people that are left worse off. The Bank and the Chancellor must get a grip immediately or risk a fiscal crisis.

Spectator (UK)

Rising inflation shows how the Bank of England is failing

The Telegraph

Low growth, high inflation: welcome to Reevesonomics

There is a 16% chance that the U.K. will achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 16% chance that the U.K. will achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Graham

Riley-Smith

Colvile

Responsibility

Commission

Smith

Starmer

Articles on this story

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UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Graham

Riley-Smith

Colvile

Responsibility

Commission

Smith

Starmer

Articles on this story

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