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These ham-fisted export curbs epitomize strategic myopia at its worst. By forcing China to develop indigenous alternatives, Washington effectively gifted Beijing the very technological independence it sought to prevent. Nvidia's market share plummeted, replaced entirely by Chinese innovation that export controls "turbocharged" into existence. The policy's fundamental folly lies in believing you can stifle progress through prohibition — instead of maintaining American technological hegemony, these controls merely accelerated China's march toward self-sufficiency while sacrificing billions in revenue.
There is a 5% chance that Nvidia will have its AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?, according to the Metaculus prediction community.