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Snapshot 4:Thu, Jun 5, 2025 8:44:33 AM GMT last edited by ArthursSeat22

Vietnam Scraps Two-Child Policy Amid Declining Birth Rates

Vietnam Scraps Two-Child Policy Amid Declining Birth Rates

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The Spin

RemovingDecades birthof limitsthoughtful won'tpopulation solvestewardship thehave underlyingblessed economicVietnam pressureswith thata drivegolden familiesdemographic todividend have fewer67.5% childrenworking-age incitizens thefueling firstremarkable placegrowth. RisingYet livingthis costs,triumph especiallyteeters inon urbana areas,knife's makeedge: raisingfertility multipleat 1.96 children financiallyper prohibitive for most families, regardless of government policy changeswoman. The focusarchitects shouldof besuccess onmust addressingnow affordabilitybecome rathermasters thanof simplydelicate liftingtransition, restrictionsor thatrisk weren'tsquandering strictlytheir enforced anywaymasterwork.

Decades of draconian population controls — dismissing state workers for third children, expelling Party members for "excess" births — have engineered Vietnam into a demographic trap. Now, with fertility plummeting to 1.91 children per woman, the authoritarian architects of family limitation confront their own creation: a nation racing toward demographic collapse.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that 4.8 communist states will be there in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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